Report summary:
Downward pressure on the economy, the machinery industry needs to continue the pressure situation. 2015 1-9 months, general equipment profit rose 0.72%, general equipment profit fell 4.96%, the industry profit growth rate decreased. Machinery industry as one of the serious areas of excess capacity, the slowdown in demand is bound to make the momentum of the machinery industry further intensified. The economic downward trend evident in the background, countries continue to promote the steady growth of policy, the rail industry represented by investment again overweight. On the basis of dimensional stability, structural adjustment is still the most important, high-end equipment manufacturing industry is the biggest aspect of the machinery industry next year.
Intelligent equipment: the domestic manufacturing industry to upgrade the transformation of the booster and the main battlefield. 2014, China's industrial robot sales reached 57 thousand and 100 units, an increase of 16 thousand, sales of local enterprises reached 56% units, an increase of 78%. Rising labor costs is one of the reasons to promote the robot, but the motivation is not the only, to some extent, enhance the part of the domestic industry (including labor-intensive industries) and improve the degree of automation, industry competitive advantage and to reduce industrial pressure (two by the high-end product competitiveness is not strong, resulting in high cost of labor intensive labor Industrial drain) situation. “ machine substitution ” will become an important direction of future manufacturing industry in transition.
Farm machinery and equipment: land transfer acceleration in the context of agricultural machinery industry will be full of new vitality. The industrialization of agricultural modernization, has become an important starting point to break the predicament of the development of domestic agricultural development, agricultural modernization, agricultural needs in advance. From the investment opportunities, the future of the overall mechanization rate continues to improve faster is an inevitable. But the greater focus is on the three main lines: import substitution opportunities, mountain hills and the lower part of the crop mechanization rate, the opportunity to go out of farm machinery.
Rail transport: steady growth, out of the industry to become the focus of attention of the market. One of the important starting point for rail investment as the steady growth of government. This year, the country continued to increase investment in the field of rail transit policy, the annual railway fixed asset investment plan has more than a trillion yuan, rail transportation equipment industry boom of the high degree of momentum can still be continued. The strategy of going out to get attention, at the government level this year, high-speed rail has become China's high-end equipment manufacturing exports “ name card ” good, open up overseas market of railway equipment industry growth helps to open new space.
Special equipment: performance growth is relatively stable, broad service extension space. Special equipment belonging to the machinery industry more segments, the company itself has the characteristics of small fast spirit, this kind of company extends to specific services, barrier advantage special equipment industry itself has a high, provide more professional service, through service in the peer can occupy the position advantage, talent shows itself, increase market share. Open up new revenue growth.
Investment advice: economic downturn, demand for machinery industry has brought great impact, taking into account the need for a longer period of time to the production capacity, demand slowdown is inevitable to make mechanical industry pressure momentum further intensified, lowered the industry investment rating to big city. Investment ideas: (1) an important starting point under the pressure of the economic downturn: railway equipment industry; (2) in line with the direction of economic transformation: Robotics and automation industry; (3) to accelerate the transfer of land to bring new opportunity for development of agricultural machinery industry: agricultural equipment industry; (4) the equipment demand is relatively stable, expand new space extension services: the special equipment industry; investment portfolio: Haida shares, LONCIN, new GM, Ding Han technology, robotics, Tianqi shares, Jiangnan jiajie.
Risk warning: economic growth downward than expected; out of the strategic promotion is not smooth; industrial restructuring is lower than expected.