April domestic steel market prices run

According to the market analysis report shows that in March the domestic steel prices generally rose 200~400 yuan, ore imports rose significantly, the billet is repeatedly punching steel generally achieve peak, the level of 200-300 yuan, hit a new high in recent years, although demand is gradually released, but still weak, not enough to pull the steel prices continue to move forward, &ldquo three gold; ” “ silver have been fulfilled, four ” and how to behave?
First, steel prices in March ‘ jumping ’ wide shocks, discovered “ Yangchun ”
&lsquo &rsquo, three; gold; steel prices fluctuated many times after being traded to suppress climbing back, showing soaring plunge ‘ &rsquo type steel market, flower briefly as the broad-leaved epiphyllum; compared with the average price rose to 17% last month compared to the same period, the price of imported ore at the bottom elevation, general refers to the whole month rose 12.6%, Tangshan rose to carbon steel billet 19.6%, increase the cost is slightly higher than that of timber, to have a certain impact of steel prices in the actual earnings, lower prices of iron ore, the whole process of mills profit margins significantly enlarged.
General rebound in domestic steel prices, the trend for the obvious ‘ roller coaster ’ line, part of the highest single product rose over 800 yuan / ton, a few years of rare price movements. Sub varieties, the plate is slightly stronger than the long material. Why steel prices in March rose fell back is not rare, a few years ago before the Spring Festival market? The analysis of research in this article has a detailed analysis, will not repeat them. In simple terms, the sharp rise in steel prices in March fell, not because of demand, but for the expected and environmental speculation.
Two, steel billet lead black metal, steel mills earnings expanded to 200-300 yuan / ton
March black metal rebound vanguard, namely for iron ore, steel billet, but although prices will be strong, iron ore and steel production rate downturn continued to pull up relatively sluggish, or is relatively low, and the billet material because stock is approaching the lows of less than 600 thousand tons, and the Tangshan production is expected to strong. The product and material market led almost.
After accounting, by the end of March, by the impact of rising raw material costs, compared to the domestic mainstream steel cost per ton rose 120~130 yuan, the same period, the domestic steel market products has risen in the range of 300~400 yuan / ton, the mainstream of the steel factory price also generally increased, the Wuhan steel, Anshan Iron and lumber enterprises raised ex factory price of larger, the rate reached 300~900 yuan / ton, building materials enterprises is relatively flat, Shagang, transit steel factory price total monthly increase of 300~400 yuan / ton, comprehensive estimates, in March the domestic mainstream mills in profit per ton 200~300 yuan / ton, is rare in recent years a substantial profit space, however, did not mills if the profit production expected, some steel mills by the end of the month continues among the soaking furnace. In this regard, analysts believe that, “ shortage of funds resulting in steel production is slow, with the March price earnings after the payment is completed, the domestic steel production is expected in April there will be a significant increase, which will increase the supply of steel low. ”
Three, weak demand for strong, the market ushered in a rare relaxed mood
In March, the domestic steel market entered the peak phase of traditional, compared to the downstream steel demand before and after the Spring Festival has been significantly improved, and the other one is the steel production repeatedly delayed, making the market supply and demand eased. At the end of March, the focus of the market total steel inventories fell to 11 million 510 thousand tons, for since the beginning of March declined for third consecutive weeks, representing a decrease of 3 million 900 thousand tons, the traditional market to the inventory for spring three weeks before the deadline; the end of the mid March, focusing on steel within the total inventory of 13 million 760 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 3 million 600 thousand tons, the average daily crude steel production was 1 million 662 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of ten ring 75 thousand tons, essentially flat compared to last year, before the long-term lower than last year's level of 100 thousand tons.
For years after the steel production recovery rate is low, crude steel production remained at a low level, the domestic steel supply pressure has been weak, steelworks inventory, stock market resources were relatively low; at the same time, after entering in March with the normal production of the downstream industry, steel demand is the release amount, steel supply and demand contradiction greatly the ease. From the above it is obvious that by the end of March, crude steel production rebounded quickly, social inventory and steel stocks continue to fall, the side that the terminal demand release speed, the next period of time, the market supply and demand will remain relatively subdued, still have a good role in promoting the price of steel.
Analysts pointed out that despite the current steel prices generally low internal inventory and social inventory, but the steel was not the real terminal needs complete digestion, more is the middle of the steel trade caused by the disappearance of the inventory restocking, stays in the hands of middlemen, once in April after the terminal is not capable to accept expensive resources, to the steel trade to continue to trade adverse effects, or will the steel price formation control.
Four, April domestic steel price trend early warning analysis: demand for the release of the peak season, the price of steel or will be stronger than in March
Kim ‘ three ’ the season and failed to fully release the steel demand, the market is expected to support the environmental protection policy, but can not be stirred; too long, silver ‘ four ’ demand can effective admission, will be key to determine the fate of the steel price, then the iron and steel market in April will be? Detailed views are as follows:
Steel prices in April is expected to bring positive positive factors:
[the traditional peak season started to increase, April steel downstream demand release will accelerate the increment of] the first two months of this year, real estate investment in fixed assets growth rebound, new housing construction area is also increasing, the main steel downstream terminal industry increased; other countries and local governments often arrange special funds, and to increase and accelerate the start a number of major projects, the future April infrastructure and real estate development and construction site construction will usher in the season, steel demand continues to increase is the probability of the event; in addition NPC and CPPCC determined this year's economic goals of the major policy measures will also be in 4May gradually enter the implementation phase, are expected to enhance the demand for steel.
[steel production replenishment of raw materials, iron ore supply and demand contradictions ease, or pull the ore price rise support] at present domestic steel timber raw material inventory level is lower than the previous level, with steel production rate increase in April, restocking demand is larger, and the vale for reducing million tons production and the current iron ore inventory of all domestic ports the lower level of the market, the contradiction between supply and demand is still easing, will drive the iron ore and other raw materials continue to rise in the late April, the cost of steel support on the spot may continue to improve.
Steel prices rose in March [profit increase, steel prices rose tight capital reduction] in March, steel prices and steel trade are profitable, industry funding tensions eased somewhat, the steel trade has the hands of stock market reservoir function in the promotion, will be on April steel market operation zone to better support.
Although in April in the traditional season of the city's seasonal season, but some unfavorable factors also appear:
[steel production in April lows, the steel supply will increase] mills profit in March after a period of expansion, profit payment, funds will be eased, will stimulate steel production accelerated, this situation has been reflected in the end of the month increase in crude steel production of 4.7%, as the market continued to improve, the demand for the release of the rest of the group is expected to accelerate, braised furnace steel mills will also start production, steel production increased supply will increase, supply and demand to ease the honeymoon period ‘ ’ also will end, is expected to April steel prices trend to specific adverse effects.
[Shanghai, that the most stringent restriction policy or restrictions on investment in real estate development and new housing starts, restrictions on steel demand] since March, the state and local government for the holiday surge part introduced a series of policies known as the most stringent restrictions, suddenly turned to the real estate policy, or will the market demand for steel is expected to bring confidence a blow, the downstream end exist so resist the current high price of steel prices, steel prices in April will probably limit the rise of space.
The supply side reform implementation [still need time, how the results also need to observe the execution of supply side reform] steel industry supply and demand will be given at both ends is a long-term positive, but the specific implementation will have to wait for more details; how to and around the various trades, enforcement, also need time to seriously, is expected to have basic digestion, once the implementation of timely and inadequate implementation, will be on the market confidence has a significant negative impact.
Large PK steel production upstream environmental profit increase production, downstream demand season release speed, plus the high cost gradually, domestic steel prices in April overall prices is a high probability event, the single focus had positive expectations, the implementation of the real estate market, whether the reaction more stringent limit after the mills can Kangzhu short-term interests without expansion production will directly bring adverse effects on the market, will also limit the April steel price rise space, is expected in April domestic steel prices will be lower than in March, showed moderate rebound pattern.