Supply side down capacity and production, forced a new round of consolidation of the tide. To improve the supply side reforms, the main significance of the steel industry total factor productivity at present is to reduce administrative intervention, the use of market-oriented means to accelerate the loss of iron and steel production capacity and accelerate the elimination of loss of steel prices in the bankruptcy process, increase the effective supply of iron and steel industry and enhance the supply efficiency.
Demand side: open up new markets, expand the downstream demand space. In addition to actively resolve the contradiction between production capacity, reduce the supply of the industry, but also need to actively guide the downstream industry, to further expand the industry's downstream demand space. Leading industry needs to a new level. Before the export growth can be said to be a way of growth in demand, but too much will bring a lot of problems such as trade friction, the most fundamental or to expand the space industry downstream demand.
2015 national approval of nearly one hundred transportation infrastructure projects. The national development and Reform Commission macroeconomic data show that in 2015 1-10 months, the NDRC has approval of fixed assets investment projects 237, a total investment of 18995 yuan; the traffic infrastructure projects 86, a total investment of 10345 yuan, accounting for 54.5% of the total approved projects. Under normal circumstances, after the approval of the project in 6-9 months to show the effect, will enjoy the bonus in 2016 years.
In the near future, the spot steel market has entered a weak balance of supply and demand. On the one hand, the winter is the traditional iron and steel consumption off-season, especially in steel and other building materials demand a larger decline. At present, the northern region of the cold weather, combined with a large number of regions in a large number of serious fog and haze, construction site significantly reduced, the purchase of rebar also significantly reduced. On the other hand, iron and steel production is also reduced. According to CISA statistics, mid December compared with early steel production continued to decline, steel mill inventory and steel inventories are reduced, the market supply continues to decline.
Consecutive strong futures driven rebar spot stabilized upward, Shanghai steel prices rose 80 yuan / ton in three days. But the good times don't last long continued strong spot market, the lack of the foundation of the current spot steel prices across the country no longer rise, in order to stabilize the main part of the region and even declined slightly.
In the future continuous advance, the rebar futures in recent months has been a premium of nearly 40 yuan / ton, iron ore futures in recent months, the premium of more than 10 yuan / ton. The spot market has slowed down the rise, is expected to close later in the contract or limited. In the domestic economic slowdown in the background, the market is not very optimistic about the market in May next year. And in the case of negative growth in steel demand, the reduction in iron and steel production will become a trend, the demand for iron ore will further shrink. Rebar 1605 contract continued to rise the power shortage, the short-term is expected to maintain the state of strong oscillation.
In addition, 21, the closing of the central economic work conference, to resolve the real estate inventory is listed as one of the five major tasks of China's economic and social development next year. The meeting made it clear that to encourage real estate development enterprises “ appropriately reduce the commodity housing price ” and “ to cancel out of date restrictive measures ”.
2015 decline in the real estate industry has become a drag on the main cause of GDP, which we expect to improve in 2016, in promoting investment growth, the role of the real estate industry has once again strengthened. To stimulate the real estate investment will become the local government steady investment, steady growth in key, more real estate bailout of “ ” policy will be introduced, which will affect the demand for steel is improved more intuitive.