The futures market fell across the board, nickel, asphalt, ferrosilicon, Zheng Mei, tin limit, glass, rubber, steel, coke, coke fell more than 3%. On Tuesday night, black tumbled collective: coke, coking coal, coal steel limit across the board, far month contract almost all limit.
An early futures market fell across the board, nickel, asphalt, ferrosilicon, Zheng Mei, tin limit, glass, rubber, steel, coke, coke fell more than 3%. On Tuesday night, black tumbled collective: coke, coking coal, coal steel limit across the board, far month contract almost all limit.
Changjiang Securities analyst Wang Hetao said, black price callback, like a mirage and insubstantial objects. Regardless of ups and downs, black industry chain futures prices always rushed in the front line.
According to China Merchants Securities, this round of rising is the longest time in nearly five years, the largest increase. Friday last's price with the level of last December's low level of view, the composite steel price index rose 14.9%, rebar rose 12.9%, hot rolling up 20.1%, the plate rose 21.5%, galvanized or 13.5%, cold plate up 20%.
For this round of skyrocketing steel prices, the reasons behind the whole black excitement in the market, the major brokerage disagree.
State Securities analyst Yang said that the steel price is expected to rise over the following inherent logic:
Price has nothing to do with the demand, the core is still up inventory
Current point is still in the off-season, the terminal demand has not yet started, the demand is clearly not the cause of price increases, only the middle of the demand (traders fill inventory) or supply. Fill inventory simply depends on the expected (expected to increase — — capital costs), so one is bullish sentiment in the market, the two is sufficient funds (liquidity), while the low inventory is amplified elastic. Therefore, the futures led the steel billet and then drive the spot. End demand is the focus of the next two weeks to focus.
Understand the consequences of low inventory and long time reduction
Current inventory serious low: Steel social stock fell 20%, Tangshan billet stock fell 51.5%, steel mills inventory is also low. Industry since the second half of 2015 for 9 consecutive months to maintain the operating rate of less than 77% (the corresponding capacity utilization is expected to less than 70%), will inevitably lead to the depth of the industry chain to inventory, traders fill inventory enlarged the gap.
Operating rate PK peak demand
Peak demand intensity in the history of the year higher than the full year at least 5-10 percentage points, if the operating rate remains below 77%, the annual demand change is not under the assumption that the peak season probably rate for less than demand, support prices.
However, analysts believe that, although a series of reform measures such as speech, frequently appeared, but the trend of steel prices still do, that the supply side reform is not the core reason for rising steel prices.
Fill the library is not the main reason. On the one hand, the current round of price rebound from the first cold rolling, hot rolling, plate, variety and price rebound since then, direct supply plate price based cumulative increase significantly more than the long material, that is the current round of sheet steel prices lead distribution accounted for more than the long material in the supporting follow up from first to last position. Distribution structure and the rise and fall of the difference between the comparison shows that the main reason is not the main,
In addition, since the end of the Spring Festival in February 14th, the steel trade link steel stocks continued to decline year on year, has not shown a sign of the so-called middlemen fill inventory. It is reported that the demand for improvement is the core reason for the current round of price increases. After the rebound in steel prices, steel industry chain upstream inventory growth down in the steel supply steady rise, showing lower demand is indeed better. However, sub species, although long plate demand has improved, but in the Spring Festival this year compared to last year's date in advance, the construction time in February year-on-year increase in cases, still can not determine the building materials demand by seasonal factors greater improvement in the existence of seasonal factors other than.
While the impact of seasonal factors for smaller plates, automobile, household appliances and other downstream boom is the main reason for the improvement in demand:
(1) by “ passenger car purchase tax by half ” policy stimulus, car production rose significantly at the end of last year increased significantly;
(2) home appliance exports benefit from the devaluation of the RMB in recent months has improved. At the same time, with the real estate is different, due to the production of finished goods inventory is relatively smooth, the field of automotive appliances demand side to stimulate the conduction to the production side is relatively smooth.
Because it is all originated from China's demand for better, in a synchronized rebound in global commodity prices, black performance has always been the most eye-catching. Although supply adjustment lags behind demand, inventory is only the result of the demand change, and can not change the direction, but it can change the range. Low supply and low inventory amplification of the current round of steel price increases flexibility.
Analysts said the improved demand caused prices to rise is not the ceiling, especially in the current demand for improvement in the case of relatively limited (car / home appliance / heavy trucks and excavators, picked up its current low production and sales growth in the high growth period which cannot be mention in the same breath), soaring callback is not surprising. In the short term, the trend has not changed, the demand for sheet stable demand for long products need to meet the expected upturn yet stage, expected prices will continue strong, but need to be wary of mills profitable because of the continued good and rapid resumption of production bring the price of the supply side pressure.
The full year, &ldquo in NPC and CPPCC; steady growth, adjusting the structure of ” tone, only expect little probability of infrastructure and other fiscal stimulus hold steel demand, the steel industry has always been a clearing capacity, is expected to price to rise obviously central black.