The chemical industry plays an important role in the national economy, and it is the basic industry and pillar industry in many countries. Affected by the economic environment at home and abroad, in 2015 the chemical industry is facing many challenges such as profit decline, excess capacity, rising costs, resource and environmental constraints, as well as the lack of innovation capacity and so on. Details of the development trend of the chemical industry in 2016 are as follows.
Analysis of the development trend of chemical industry in 2016 is expected to remain low: the overall Wind data show that as of December 22nd, A shares a total of 124 chemical listed companies announced the annual results notice, in addition to 4 uncertainty, there are 72 pre hi performance of the company, accounting for 59%. Brokerage analysts believe that, from 2015 data point of view, in 2016 the overall chemical industry is expected to remain low, should focus on corporate restructuring, new materials and supply and demand to improve the three types of investment opportunities.
Continuous performance differentiation
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Data show that the pre hi companies, pre growth, a slight increase, continued earnings and losses of companies were 28, 23, 8 and 14. If the net profit growth rate lower, 65 companies are expected to achieve net profit growth. Among them, 27 companies net profit growth of more than 50%, at least 21 companies net profit growth of more than 10 times.
From the industry point of view, the characteristics of chemical industry makes the hot strong cycle industry changing ideas. Yejiyuzeng company mainly concentrated compound fertilizer, the lithium battery industry chain, special chemicals, new materials, polyester and other industries, these industries pre hi companies accounted for more than 70%.
From the performance growth reasons, the downstream demand driven and cost improvement is an important reason for the growth of these companies. More up-to-date chemical products industry market analysis information please refer to the Chinese report hall issued "2015-2020 China household chemical products industry market demand and investment advisory report".
The company, with the growth rate of net profit in the first place 800%-850% duofuduo. Benefit from the downstream new energy automobile production and sales company, power lithium battery and six fluorine lithium phosphate products in short supply, power lithium battery sales growth significantly, six fluorine lithium phosphate into the new cycle, prices rise faster, profitability rebound. Similar to the main industry for the new energy automotive electrolyte material is expected annual net profit rose 15%- 40%. The company recently announced, 60 million yuan stake in Jiangsu Rong Department of general lithium industry, into the industry chain to ensure the production of lithium carbonate, six fluorine lithium carbonate raw materials supply.
Similar with the lithium battery industry chain &ldquo 13th Five-Year; ” planning, the country will vigorously develop wind power, photovoltaic industry. Driven by the demand for wind power blades downstream, the technology is expected to achieve net profit of 228 million 292 thousand and 200 yuan to 304 million 389 thousand and 600 yuan, an increase of 50% to 100%.
Polyester polyester industry chain will benefit from the “ stumble endlessly ” the price of oil. Rongsheng Petrochemical Hengyi petrochemical and have said, with crude oil prices to stabilize low volatility and downstream textile demand, improve the supply and demand, PTA and polyester fiber products production and sales, product gross margin rebound, 2015 is expected to achieve profitability, net profit ranged from 350 million yuan to 500 million yuan and 100 million yuan -20000.
The compound fertilizer industry in Xindu chemical industry, Jin Zhengda and STANLEY net profit growth rate above 25%. Among them, the new capacity put in Xindu chemical, expects net profit growth of 70%-90%. Compound fertilizer industry still maintained a steady growth, but the overall net profit growth declined slightly.
From the total net profit, net profit is expected at most is Kang Dexin and kim. Benefit from the application of product development, kangdexin is expected to achieve net profit of about 1 billion 403 million 890 thousand yuan -145403 yuan, an increase of 40%-45%. Jin Zhengda is expected to achieve a net profit of 1 billion 82 million 990 thousand yuan -116962.92 million, an increase of 25%-35%.
Adjustment of industrial structure
At present, coal chemical industry, rubber, pesticide and other related energy and chemical industry in 13th Five-Year “ ” plan is being prepared, Chinese Securities newspaper reporter interviewed the relevant industry associations who understand that on the whole, adjusting the structure of “ ” become the industry in 13th Five-Year “ ” an important direction for planning. The chemical industry currently widespread structural surplus production capacity, high production capacity, low excess capacity, so the adjustment of industrial structure, increase the proportion of high-end production capacity, eliminate backward production capacity will be an important task in the future regulation of the.
Securities analyst believes that the macro economy under the new normal chemical industry overall is still in the capacity to process, 2016 is still the main structural investment opportunities, it is recommended to focus on technology driven new material application, to the production situation of agriculture industry transformation, promoting the reform of agricultural industry chain integration of supply and demand, improve the structure of the sub industry, industrial structure most upgrades such as import substitution investment opportunities.
The improvement in supply and demand, the first three quarters of 2015, fixed asset investment growth rate continued to drop in the chemical industry, the cumulative increase of only 2.69%; basic chemical raw materials manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate down to 0.98%; fixed asset investment growth rate reached a record low of chemical industry. The chemical industry is expected to remain low in 2016. However, the chemical industry supply growth rate continued to reduce, to ease the excess capacity to provide an opportunity, industry concentration is expected to increase, some of the higher capacity of the company will benefit from the policy support.
In recent years, the new production capacity less stickyPlastic staple and overseas demand is relatively stable in the titanium dioxide industry leading companies concern. The international giants of titanium dioxide for company (formerly DuPont), Huntsman and Interroll has recently announced that since January 1, 2016, the global price of titanium dioxide, in the range of $150 per ton -160 dollars, about 5%. Due to the presence of the linkage effect of product price increases, the price of overseas giants is expected to be relatively weak domestic titanium dioxide industry has boosted.
In addition, the reform of state-owned enterprises as well as the active transition is also an important part of the structural adjustment. The industry in 2015 occurred on the backdoor restructuring transformation case, Aoyang technology, science and long Gimpo titanium transition to growth prospects even more certain medical, financial and other industries. The reform of state-owned enterprises, Chongqing Three Gorges A, Jianfeng Chemical and other Lutianhua company concern. Reform of the central enterprises, the group set up a state-owned enterprise reform group, the overall reform program is expected to discuss the draft is expected to be formed in 2016. A large group of small cap type chemical enterprises, north of the shares owned as Ordnance Group, energy saving and environmental protection under the China Mason shares concern.
Emerging industries continue to grow
Securities analysts believe that 2015 in part to new economy strategic emerging industry companies is expected to continue high growth, mainly involving new material graphene and carbon fiber; new energy battery and higher trade barriers of import substitution have the concept of electronic chemicals industry.
Among them, graphene is one of the most promising new materials, and the properties of carbon fiber materials compared to traditional advantages, extensive use of military and civilian areas, about 70% of domestic carbon fiber need to be imported, and most of the high-end, huge import substitution space. Industry chain company Kang Dexin, Baoan, China and the state of the biological and other worthy of attention.
New energy vehicles, the "made in China 2025" the development of new energy vehicles. Ministry of industry, by 2020, the new energy automobile brand sales exceeded 1 million, the domestic market share of more than 70%. In 2014 75 thousand calculations, the compound growth rate of 67.9% in 2020, the demand for power lithium battery continued strong. In environmental protection and resource driven policy, is expected to 2016 lithium battery will continue to maintain high growth, the industry chain companies such as duofuduo, Cangzhou pearl and providential materials growth period.
In the electronic chemical industry, with the transfer of the downstream electronic information industry to China, the localization of the raw materials is the trend of the times. In the national security strategy and under the background of economic transition, is expected to follow the policy support will increase, domestic electronic chemicals sector ushered in the historical opportunity, may be concerned about the strength of new material, South photoelectric materials, Kang Dexin, Kay, sinocera, etc..