The picture shows Fu Xiangsheng receiving interviews from several media reporters at the press conference. (Our reporter Zhang Yuzu)
In 2018, the main business income of the petroleum and chemical industry was 12.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6% over the previous year; the total profit was 83.93 billion yuan, an increase of 32.1% over the previous year; and the total import and export volume was 75.43 billion yuan, an increase of 29.3% over the previous year. This is the latest news from the press conference on the economic operation of China's petroleum and chemical industry on January 29.
According to the industrial economic operation report issued by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, in 2018, there were 27 813 Enterprises above the scale of petrochemical industry, with a profit margin of 6.77%. Among them, the profits of the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 587.2%, the profits of the petroleum processing industry decreased by 3.4%, and the profits of the chemical industry increased by 16.3%. Overall, the industry's economic operation in 2018 shows the main characteristics of maintaining a relatively rapid growth in efficiency, continuing to optimize and upgrade the economic structure, better than expected exports, and faster growth of energy consumption.
Fu Xiangsheng, vice president of the Petrochemical Federation, pointed out that behind the economic operation data, the positive changes in the high-quality development of the industry were reflected. In 2018, the structural contradictions of the industry were gradually alleviated, backward capacity quickened, industrial structure layout was continuously optimized, plant scale, concentration and productivity utilization rate were gradually improved; new and old kinetic energy were successively transformed, a large number of outstanding scientific and technological achievements were commended, and innovative capabilities of important technologies and major equipment were continuously improved; green development was gradually improved, and a number of standard systems were completed. Formulated and cultivated a number of typical demonstrations such as green factories and green parks, and launched the three year action plan for energy efficiency leader activities and responsible care. International cooperation has been expanding continuously, and has carried out in-depth cooperation with international organizations such as ICCA, signed bilateral strategic cooperation agreements with 20 countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and has also been deepening international cooperation in &ldquo, &rdquo along the way and along the line. The park management has become more standardized, highlighting a number of leading parks, focusing on the pilot projects of intelligent parks and green parks, new industrialization demonstration bases and circular development demonstrations; the status of key enterprises has become more prominent, with the main revenue of six major groups, such as PetroChina and Sinopec, accounting for about 60% of the whole industry, total profits accounting for about 40%, and the competitiveness of a number of innovative enterprises, such as Wanhua Chemistry, increasing. The leading role in the industry is more prominent.
According to Fu Xiangsheng's analysis, the whole industry's economic operation last year was stable, progressive, stable, changeable, anxious and superior. Specifically, the main revenue and the total profit have both increased, achieving steady progress; however, the absolute value of the main revenue and the number of Enterprises above the scale have decreased, the profit margin of the main revenue, the total investment and import and export have increased, the profits of the oil and gas sector have increased greatly, and the income of the chemical sector has decreased greatly, which all reflect steady and changing, especially the main revenue of the chemical sector is 7.27 trillion yuan, compared with the previous year. A sharp decrease of 1.8 trillion yuan is unprecedented in history. In addition, the downward pressure of the industry economy continues to increase, the whole year's growth is less than the previous year. The increasing refining capacity makes the market competition more intense. The price of chemical products fluctuates greatly, the profit growth rate declines obviously, and the worries are even more serious.
Zhu Fang, Director of Information and Marketing Department of the Federation of Petrochemical Industry, introduced that in 2018, it was not easy for the whole industry to surpass the national industrial average. There are many significant changes in the data, such as 6.77% profit margin of main business income, which is the highest level since 2012, among which 6.89% profit margin of main business income of chemical industry is the best level in history; the total import and export volume of the industry is 754.34 billion US dollars, up 29.3% year-on-year; the trade deficit is 283.26 billion US dollars, up 43.8%; the investment in chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing industry is restored. Compound growth trend, the growth rate reached 6%; in the chemical industry subdivision, fertilizer and coal chemical industry profits increased by 70.1% and 161.2%, respectively.
Report on Economic Operation of China's Petroleum and Chemical Industry in 2018
Ministry of Information and Marketing, China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation
January 29, 2019
2018 is an extraordinary year. Faced with the complex and severe external environment, the petroleum and chemical industry, in accordance with the strategic plan of the Central Committee of the Party and the State Council, has actively implemented the requirements of high-quality development, adhered to steady progress, deepened the structural reform of the supply side, vigorously promoted the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and innovative drive, worked hard to meet difficulties, and achieved good results. The quality and efficiency of the economic operation of the industry has witnessed a new accumulation. Polar change.
I. Basic Situation of Economic Operation
(1) General situation of petroleum and chemical industry
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2018, 27813 Enterprises above the scale of petroleum and chemical industries had increased their annual growth value by 4.6% compared with the previous year, 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous year; their main business income was 12.4 trillion yuan, 13.6% higher than the previous year; their total profits were 839.38 billion yuan, 32.1% higher than the previous year, accounting for 12.1% and 12.7% of the total revenue and profits of the national scale industries, respectively. Export delivery value was 701.87 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0% over the previous year; total assets were 12.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3% over the previous year, accounting for 11.3% of the total assets of large-scale industries in China, and the asset-liability ratio was 54.56%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points over the previous year.
In 2018, the profit margin of the main business income of the petroleum and chemical industries was 6.77%, up 0.95 points from the previous year; the cost of the main business income per 100 yuan was 81.32 yuan, down 0.50 yuan from the previous year.
(2) Operation of the three major business sectors
1. Oil and Gas Exploitation
By the end of 2018, 286 Enterprises above the scale of petroleum and natural gas exploitation industry had increased their cumulative value-added by 5.0% and 5.5 percentage points over the previous year; their main revenue was 1.01 trillion yuan, up 21.3%; their total profit was 1598 billion yuan, up 58.7.2%; and their export delivery value was 1.62 billion yuan.Yuan, an increase of 0.7%; total assets of 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%; asset-liability ratio of 42.78%, a decrease of 4.06 percentage points over the same period last year.
The total output of crude oil and natural gas in the year was 334 million tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 2.4% over the previous year. Among them, crude oil production was 189 million tons, down by 1.2%; natural gas production (CBM, the same below) was 161.02 billion cubic meters, up by 7.5%; liquefied natural gas production was 900.2 million tons, down by 0.9%. The year-round imports of crude oil amounted to 462 million tons, an increase of 10.1% compared with the previous year, with an external dependence of 70.8%. The imports of natural gas amounted to 125.72 billion cubic meters, an increase of 31.9%, and an external dependence of 43.2%.
In 2018, the profit margin of the owner's business income for oil and gas exploitation was 15.76%, up 12.98 points from the previous year, and the cost of the main business income per 100 yuan was 64.79 yuan, down 12.59 yuan from the previous year.
2. Petroleum Processing Industry
By the end of 2018, 1210 Enterprises above the scale of petroleum processing industry had accumulated an increase of 6.4% in value-added, 0.3 percentage points faster than the previous year; the main revenue was 3.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.5%; the total profit was 169.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4%; the export delivery value was 139.64 billion yuan, an increase of 82.0%; the total assets was 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7%; the asset-liability ratio was 60.73%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points over the previous year.
The annual crude oil processing volume was 604 million tons, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year; the output of refined oil (steam, coal and diesel) was 360 million tons, an increase of 3.6%, of which diesel oil output was 174 million tons, a decrease of 19%, gasoline production was 139 million tons, an increase of 8.1%, kerosene production was 47.73 million tons, an increase of 12.7%. In 2018, 46.08 million tons of refined oil were exported, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year.
In 2018, the profit margin of oil processing owners'operating income was 4.38%, down 1.17 points from the same period last year; the cost of operating income per 100 yuan was 80.20 yuan, up 3.53 yuan from the same period last year.
3. Chemical Industry
By the end of 2018, 24821 Enterprises above the scale of chemical industry had accumulated an increase of 3.6% in value-added, which was the same as the previous year; their main business income was 7.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6%; their total profit was 50.65 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%; their export delivery value was 53.74 billion yuan, an increase of 13.1%; their total assets were 7.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; their asset-liability ratio was 55.85%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points over the previous year. Investment grew by 6.0% throughout the year, ending two consecutive years of decline.
In 2018, China's total output of major chemical products increased by about 2.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the total output of chemical fertilizer (converted to pure) was 54.596 million tons, down by 5.2%; the output of sulphuric acid was 86.364 million tons, up by 1.8%; the output of caustic soda was 34.220 million tons, up by 0.9%; the output of ethylene was 18.41 million tons, up by 1.0%; the output of pure benzene was 8.276 million tons, up by 47.56 million tons, methanol was up by 29%; the total output of synthetic materials was 158 million tons, up by 7.5%; the output of tyres was 816 million tons, up by 1.0%. .0%.
In 2018, the profit margin of the main business income of the chemical industry was 6.89%, up 0.46 points from the previous year; the cost of the main business income per 100 yuan was 84.13 yuan, down 0.56 yuan from the previous year.
2. Main Characteristics and Problems of Economic Operation
(1) Main features
1. Maintaining a Rapid Increase in Benefits
In 2018, the benefits of the petroleum and chemical industries continued to grow rapidly. Among them, the profit of oil and gas exploitation industry shows a restorative growth momentum, while the chemical industry continues to improve.
Profits grew rapidly. In 2018, the total profit of the whole industry grew by more than 30%, which was significantly ahead of the average profit growth rate of the national scale industry (10.3%). Among them, the profit of oil and gas exploitation industry increased by 5.8 times, with the contribution rate exceeding 65%.
Income growth was generally stable. Revenue of the whole industry increased by 13.6% in the whole year. From the perspective of the trend, the growth rate in the first quarter was 11.4%, 13.2% in the first half, and 14.8% in the first three quarters. The fluctuation in the whole year was small and steady. Among them, the chemical industry grew by 8.6% in the whole year, 9.8% in the first quarter, 10.3% in the first half and 10.7% in the first three quarters.
The industry's loss situation has been improving. The data show that in 2018, the loss of loss-making enterprises in the whole industry was 116.23 billion yuan, down 36.9% from the same period last year. Among them, the oil and gas exploitation industry declined 63.0%, and the chemical industry declined 14.4%. The loss of the whole industry was 16.7%, which was 2.0 percentage points smaller than that in the first half of the year.
2. Continue to optimize and upgrade the economic structure
Growth structure continues to be optimized. Manufacturing of basic chemical raw materials, synthetic materials and specialty chemicals contributes more to income growth. The contribution rate of organic chemical raw materials was 27.1%, 30.9% and 18.6% respectively. It is worth noting that the value-added of emerging industries is growing rapidly. In 2018, the added value of biomass material manufacturing increased by 211.9%, and that of biomass fuel manufacturing increased by 37.6%.
Increased growth efficiency. Unit energy consumption continued to decline. In 2018, the revenue of petroleum and chemical industries decreased by 10.0% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the chemical industry fell by 6.3%, the petroleum processing industry by 16.6%, and the oil and gas exploitation industry by 11.3%. Energy consumption is declining and energy efficiency is rising. The profitability of the industry is increasing. In 2018, the profit margin of the main business income of petroleum and chemical industry reached 6.77%, which was the highest since 2012. Among them, the profit margin of the main business income of chemical industry reached 6.89%, which is the best level in history.
Supply sideStructural reform has been steadily promoted. The asset-liability ratio continued to decline. In 2018, the asset-liability ratio of the petroleum and chemical industries was 1.40 percentage points lower than that of last year, and 1.97 percentage points lower than that of the national industrial assets-liability ratio in the same period. Among them, the chemical industry fell by 1.33 percentage points over the same period last year.
Unit cost dropped significantly. The main revenue cost of 100 yuan in the whole industry decreased by 0.50 yuan, of which the chemical industry dropped by 0.56 yuan.
3. Exports are better than expected
Export growth is high. According to statistics, in 2018, the value of export delivery of petroleum and chemical industry regulated enterprises increased by 22.0% year on year, and the growth rate was 5.9 percentage points faster than that of the previous year. Among them, the export delivery value of petroleum processing industry increased by more than 80%, and the chemical industry increased by 13.1%. It is worth mentioning that in the context of the escalating global trade war, it is not easy to achieve such a result!
Export structure optimization. Exports of specialty chemicals, synthetic materials and organic chemical raw materials increased rapidly, with the proportion rising. In 2018, the export delivery value of the above three areas increased by 19.7%, 17.2% and 21.6% respectively, which was significantly higher than the average growth rate of the chemical industry, accounting for 19.7%, 16.7% and 12.7% of the export delivery value of the chemical industry, and increased by 1.1%, 0.6% and 1.0 percentage points respectively over the same period of last year. The proportion of traditional export-oriented products such as chemical fertilizers and rubber products continued to decline. The annual fertilizer export delivery value decreased by more than 5%, accounting for only 2.3%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous year; the rubber product export delivery value increased by only 4.4%, accounting for 28.3%, down by 2.4 percentage points.
In addition, the proportion of export delivery value of petroleum processing industry in the whole industry increased significantly, reaching 19.9%, 6.6 percentage points higher than the previous year.
4. Speeding up the Growth of Energy Consumption
The data show that the total apparent consumption of crude oil and natural gas in China in 2018 is 903 million tons (oil equivalent), an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points faster than the previous year, the largest increase since 2011.
The growth of crude oil has accelerated. Apparent crude oil consumption in 2018 was 648 million tons, up 7.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.0 percentage points faster than the previous year.
Natural gas continues to grow at a high speed, with its share rising. The annual apparent consumption of natural gas was 283.35 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 17.3%, which was 2.0 percentage points faster than that of the previous year, the largest increase in recent years, accounting for 28.2% of the total apparent consumption equivalent of crude oil and natural gas, and an increase of 2.0 percentage points over the previous year.
The consumption of refined oil increased steadily and its structure improved. In 2018, the apparent consumption of refined oil was 319 million tons, an increase of 2.5%. The growth rate was basically the same as that of the previous year. Among them, the apparent consumption of gasoline is 126 million tons, an increase of 7.2%; kerosene is 37093 million tons, an increase of 12.8%; diesel is 156 million tons, a decrease of 3.0%.
(2) New Situation and Problems in Economic Operation
First, the external environment has undergone profound changes. First, the United States has vigorously pursued the unilateral hegemonic policy of the so-called -& ldquo; American priority -& rdquo. Trump's government, under the banner of Jean & ldquo; America's Great Again & rdquo; wilfully & ldquo; breach of contract & rdquo; & ldquo; withdrawal & rdquo; frequently punishes other countries and launches round after round of shocks on economic globalization and multilateral framework mechanism, and its influence is extremely bad. Second, the U.S. government launched a fierce trade war between China and the United States. For a long time, China and the United States have formed a pattern of interests in which you have your own advantages and complementary advantages. It is disastrous for China, the United States and even the global economic development to provoke a trade war. Third, the world trade barriers continue to deepen. On December 11, the WTO issued its annual report, noting that from mid-October 2017 to mid-October 2018, WTO members implemented 137 new trade restrictions, with an average of about 11 new ones per month. At the same time, the total trade covered by the trade restriction measures implemented by members reached 588.3 billion US dollars, more than seven times larger than that of the previous year (mid-October 2016-mid-October 2017). The profound changes in the external environment will further accelerate the restructuring of the global economic structure.
Second, the market shocks sharply. In 2018, the oil and chemical market fluctuated greatly, especially after entering the fourth quarter, the market fluctuated significantly, and some commodity prices continued to fall sharply. Monitoring data show that the monthly average spot prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil in November fell by 15.2% annually, while the decline of oil prices continued to accelerate in December, with 18.9% annually and 17.8% annually, respectively. The average price of crude oil futures delivered by the Shanghai Shipping Center in December fell 19.1% annually, while that for January 2019 dropped 11.3%. Monitoring also showed that the decline of some bulk organic chemical raw materials and synthetic materials continued to expand in December. For example, propylene, benzene and methanol dropped by 8.6%, 14.6% and 22.9%, polypropylene, acrylonitrile and styrene-butadiene rubber by 22.4% and 5.7%, respectively. Bulk
Product prices fluctuated and fell sharply, seriously damaging market confidence and expectations.
Third, the growth of petrochemical market demand is weak. At present, besides energy, the growth of petrochemical market demand is generally weak. In 2018, apparent diesel consumption decreased by 3.0% and increased by 1.3% last year, indicating that macroeconomic activity is slowing down. From the perspective of chemical industry market, the growth rate of the total output of major chemicals is only 2.3%, which is also one of the lowest growth rates in history, indicating that the overall growth of chemical market demand is weak.
Fourthly, there is insufficient investment motivation. Although after the fourth quarter, investment in chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing industry resumed growth trend, but the annual growth rate was only 6.0%, still below the average growth rate of 6.5% of the national industrial investment, industry investment rebound momentum is still obviously insufficient.
3. MarketTrend and Economic Growth Forecast
In 2018, the petroleum and chemical markets fluctuated greatly and differentiated greatly, but overall they still looked good. Price keeps rising, supply and demand growth structure improves, and industry efficiency is innovative. Price indices show that the ex-factory price index of oil and gas extraction industry rose 24.3% year-on-year, while that of chemical industry rose 6.2%. In December, the ex-factory price index of oil and natural gas extraction industry rose 4.5% year-on-year and fell 12.9% year-on-year, while the chemical industry rose 0.5% year-on-year and fell 1.9% year-on-year.
In 2019, the world economy is still facing great uncertainties and downward pressure. International authorities generally believe that growth may slow down. Judging from the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad and the current trend of major commodity markets, the petroleum and chemical markets will face greater challenges in 2019. Especially in the first half of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand in some markets intensified, and prices may be low and volatile. It is estimated that the total price level of oil and gas exploitation industry will decrease by about 10% and that of chemical industry by about 3%.
(1) Analysis of Main Market Trends
1. International crude oil market
In 2018, international oil prices (Prussian spot, the same below) continued to rise sharply, reaching a four-year high. From the point of view of price trend, the market fluctuates frequently and extensively due to macroeconomic, geopolitical, supply and demand changes and other uncertainties. Especially in the fourth quarter, oil prices continued to fall sharply (see figure below). Monitoring data show that the average annual price of WTI crude oil is $65.25 per barrel, up 28.5% year-on-year; Brent crude oil is $71.32 per barrel, up 32.2%; Dubai crude oil is $69.63 per barrel, up 31.6%; Shengli crude oil is $63.64 per barrel, up 31.0%. The average annual price of crude oil in the four places was $67.46 per barrel, up 30.9%.
Futures prices have stabilized. By the end of December, the average price of light crude oil delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in January 2019 was $48.95 a barrel, down 15.5% from a year earlier, and the average price in February was $49.24 a barrel, down 23.0% from a year earlier; the average price of crude oil delivered in London in January was $57.60 a barrel, down 10.2% from a year earlier; and the average price in February was $57.86 a barrel, down 16.3%. The average crude oil price delivered by Shanghai Trading Center in January was 408.37 yuan per barrel, down 11.3% from the previous month, and 407.81 yuan per barrel in February, down 0.1%.
In 2018, global crude oil consumption increased by 1.5% to about 4.523 billion tons. In 2019, the global economy is expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate has slowed down, with the International Monetary Fund predicting 3.7%. As a result, global crude oil demand continues to grow at a low rate. It is expected that global consumption will grow at about 1.3% in 2019, with a slight decline in the growth rate. Total consumption will be about 4.581 billion tons, and supply and demand will remain relatively loose. In addition, the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and other oil-producing countries in 2019, the implementation of OPEC output cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and the increase of U.S. oil and gas production will have a significant impact on the global energy supply and demand market.
According to the comprehensive analysis, the rising momentum of the international crude oil market in 2019 may be frustrated and the price will fall. The average annual price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $65 per barrel.
2. Fertilizer Market
Overall, in 2018, China's fertilizer market has stabilized and rebounded, and the prices of major varieties have increased significantly. Among them, urea and potassium fertilizer increased significantly.
Market monitoring showed that the average annual price of urea market in China was 1996 yuan/ton, a new five-year high of 18.9% year on year; diammonium phosphate 2667 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.3%; monoammonium phosphate 2278 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.0%; domestic potassium chloride 2281 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.4%; sulfur-based compound fertilizer (45%) 2433 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5%. From the perspective of fertilizer market trend, it is basically stable, with relatively small fluctuations.
In 2018, domestic market-oriented fertilizer consumption continued to decline, with the apparent total consumption falling by 4.9%. Among them, urea decreased by about 6.0%. From the point of view of export delivery value, although the decline in the second half of the year rebounded, the annual decline still reached 5.4%, and the pressure of domestic market competition continued to increase.
At present, although the structural contradictions in China's fertilizer market are still prominent, the structural adjustment has been steadily promoted, the management level and product quality have been continuously improved, and the cost has been reduced. Since 2013, the main revenue cost of 100 yuan in chemical fertilizer industry has been running above 87.30 yuan for a long time, and falls below 85.00 yuan in 2018. The benefit of the industry has improved significantly. The total consumption of chemical fertilizer in China has reached the ceiling. Cost will still be the main factor supporting the price change of chemical fertilizer market in a certain period of time in the future.
In 2019, China's total fertilizer consumption is expected to remain around 51 million tons, roughly the same as last year. Exports are likely to improve, but export growth is limited. Judging from market conditions and long-term price fluctuations, the total price level of fertilizer in 2019 may be somewhat lower than that of the previous year. Among them, the price of urea is estimated to fall by a larger margin, with an average annual price of about 1900 yuan/ton, down by 4.8% compared with the previous year; the average price of diammonium phosphate is about 2600 yuan/ton, down by 2.5%; the average price of domestic potassium chloride is about 2200 yuan/ton, down by 3.5%; and the average price of sulfur-based compound fertilizer (45%) is about 2350 yuan/ton, down by 3.4%.
3. Basic Chemical Raw Material Market
In 2018, the basic chemical raw material market continued to be in good shape, with steady growth in demand, strong price rise and continuous improvement in industry efficiency. Among the 39 main inorganic chemical raw materials monitored, the annual average price increased by 21 kinds, accounting for more than half, accounting for 53.8%; among the 84 main organic chemical raw materials monitored, 57 kinds, accounting for 67.9%. From the point of view of price trend, influenced by the commodity market, it fluctuates greatly.The magnitude of organic chemical raw materials is even greater.
Inorganic chemical raw materials: In 2018, the average market price of sulphuric acid (98%, purified water) was 403 yuan/ton, up 14.0%, nitric acid (98%) was 1685 yuan/ton, up 4.8%, caustic soda (tablet alkali, & ge; 96%) was 4243 yuan/ton, up 11.6%, soda (heavy ash) was 1963 yuan/ton, down 6.3%, calcium carbide was 2898 yuan/ton, up 6.5%; sulphur The average price was 1228 yuan/ton, up 30.6%.
Organic chemical raw materials: Ethylene (Northeast Asia) market average price of $1265.7 per ton, up 6.6% year-on-year. In the domestic market, the average price of propylene is 8627 yuan/ton, up 14.0% year on year; the average price of pure benzene (oil grade) is 6516 yuan/ton, down 4.1%; the average price of toluene (oil grade, water purification) is 5993 yuan/ton, up 9.6%; the average price of methanol (first grade, water purification) is 2921 yuan/ton, up 10.2%; the average price of ethylene glycol (high grade) is 7262 yuan/ton, up 3.4%.
In 2018, China's consumption of basic chemical raw materials grew moderately and steadily, with an increase of about 3.5%, down from the previous year. Among them, inorganic chemical raw materials increased by about 2%, organic chemical raw materials increased by about 4.5%. Overall, the effective supply of organic chemical raw materials in China is still seriously insufficient, and the import volume is large. It is expected that the market demand for basic chemical raw materials in China will continue to grow steadily in 2019. The growth rate is roughly the same as that of last year. The import volume of organic chemical raw materials may continue to decline, but the absolute value is still very high.
According to the current macroeconomic development trend, the supply and demand structure of basic chemical raw materials market will continue to optimize in 2019. However, market pressure will be greater in the first half of the year, price fluctuations will be greater, and the overall price level will decrease compared with the previous year. Among them, the average annual price of caustic soda (flake alkali) market is expected to be around 4000 yuan/ton, down 5.7% year on year; the average price of soda (heavy ash) is about 1960 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the previous year; the average price of calcium carbide is about 2800 yuan/ton, down 3.4%; the average price of propylene is about 8500 yuan/ton, down 1.5%; the average price of pure benzene (oil grade) is about 6500 yuan/ton, which is roughly the same as the previous year; The average price of purified water is about 5,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.9%; the average price of ethylene glycol is about 7,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2%; and the average price of methanol is about 2,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7%.
4. Synthetic Material Market
In 2018, the synthetic materials market as a whole has been better, with a larger price increase, but the fluctuation is also greater and the trend is polarized. Comparatively speaking, the overall price of synthetic fiber raw materials rose relatively strong, while synthetic rubber was weak.
The average price of polyvinyl chloride (LS-100) in 2018 was 7002 yuan/ton, down 2.2% year on year; the average price of high density polyethylene (5000S) was 11002 yuan/ton, up 6.5%; the average price of polypropylene (F401) was 9693 yuan/ton, up 11.8%; the average price of PA66 (101L) was 33158 yuan/ton, up 44.3%; the average price of POM (F20-03) was 15148 yuan/ton, up 14.7%; and the average price of polyester chip (filament grade half-light) was 15148 yuan/ton, up 14.7%. The price was 8476 yuan/ton, up 14.4%.
Rubber rubber: SBR (first class) market average price 12398 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.6%; cis-butadiene rubber (1500) average price 12728 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.2%; NBR (26A) average price 21422 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.5%; chloroprene rubber (A-90) average price 28031 yuan/ton, a rise of 22.1%.
Synthetic fiber raw materials: caprolactam (≥ 99.9%) market average price 16,323 yuan/ton, up 5.2%; acrylonitrile (≥ 99.9%) average price 14,930 yuan/ton, up 23.1%; pure terephthalic acid average price 6,533 yuan/ton, up 24.4%.
In 2018, the consumption of synthetic materials in China maintained a relatively rapid growth, with the total apparent consumption exceeding 200 million tons for the first time, an increase of about 7%, which was the same as the previous year. Among them, synthetic resin increased by about 4.0%.
Generally speaking, there is a big gap between supply and demand in China's synthetic materials market, especially in the high-end market, where imported products still dominate. Although the total imports of the three major synthetic materials in China declined in 2018, the absolute imports are still relatively high. It is expected that in 2019, China's consumption of synthetic materials market will continue to grow at a relatively fast rate of about 6%, while imports will remain at a relatively high level, but will maintain a downward trend, and the domestic market will remain the main target of global competition.
Based on the current market supply and demand changes, price trends and costs, as well as the future trend of crude oil price fluctuations, it is expected that the price of synthetic materials market in 2019 will generally present a high volatility pattern, with varying degrees of pullback. Among them, the average annual price of polyvinyl chloride (LS-100) is about 7000 yuan/ton, which is roughly the same as the previous year; the average price of high-density polyethylene (5000s) is about 10,400 yuan/ton, down 5.8%; the average price of polypropylene (F401) is about 9,000 yuan/ton, down 8.0%; the average price of caprolactam is about 15,000 yuan/ton, down 9.5%; the average price of acrylonitrile (≥ 99.9%) is about 13,500 yuan/ton, down 11.2%; The average price of rubber (1500) is about 12,500 yuan per ton, which is the same as the previous year.
5. Tire Market
In 2018, the domestic tire market continued to be weak, export growth declined, and prices declined in an all-round way, including car tires. Generally speaking, the contradiction between supply and demand in China's tire market is prominent. Demand is slowing down, cost is rising, price is low, competition is intensifying, and industry efficiency is low.Market monitoring shows that the average annual price of truck meridian tire (12.00R20-18PR) is 2158 yuan per piece, down 0.9% from the same period last year; the average price of car meridian tire (215/55R16) is 572 yuan per piece, down 6.2%; the average price of light truck bias tire (7.50-16-14PR) is 654 yuan per piece, down 3.2%.
China's tire industry relies heavily on the external demand market. In recent years, the international tire industry has accelerated its development. Especially since this year, international trade protectionism has prevailed, trade friction between China and the United States has intensified, tire export pressure has increased greatly, and business difficulties have continued to increase. In 2018, China's tire export delivery value maintained growth, but the growth rate slowed down significantly, with an increase of only 5.1%, down 8.1 percentage points from the previous year. The structural contradiction of tire export in China is still prominent. The products are mainly concentrated in the middle and low-end market, and the competition is fierce. From the analysis of the trend of world economic growth and tire market competition, in 2019, the global tire market is still facing protectionist barriers. The price may continue to oscillate at a low level. The domestic tire market will continue to be weak, stable and cost-sustained.
Next, the average annual price may be roughly equal to or slightly higher than the previous year. The analysis shows that in 2019, the task of restructuring the tire industry and resolving the rising cost is still very arduous, but the output will keep a small increase and the industry benefit will improve.
(2) Growth Forecast of Main Economic Indicators in 2019
According to the analysis and judgment of macroeconomic operation trend, industry production, price trend and structural adjustment changes, it is preliminarily estimated that the main business income of petroleum and chemical industry will increase by about 8% in 2019, of which the business income of chemical industry will increase by about 6%.
It is estimated that the total profits of the petroleum and chemical industries in 2019 will be basically equal to or slightly increased from the previous year.
The export delivery value of petroleum and chemical industries is expected to increase by about 15% in 2019.
It is estimated that the apparent consumption of crude oil, natural gas and caustic soda will increase by about 5.0%, 3.0% and 1.0% respectively, and that of diesel oil, fertilizer, ethylene and caustic soda will increase by about 4.5%, 3.5% and 4.0% respectively.